Obesity launch — access scenario model
Five-module workspace for modeling how payer access, pricing, competitive events, and evidence activities affect patient access, volume, and revenue across 2025–2034.
Most-likely state across all drivers. PBM tightening, oral GLP-1 launches 2026, selective employer coverage.
PBM tightening accelerates, employer carve-outs spread, oral GLP-1 takes share faster than expected.
SELECT drives cardiology adoption, Medicare opens limited coverage, employers maintain coverage.
Patient segments, payer mix, KBQ issue map, and evidence library.
Deterministic patient-flow model: epi → demand → access → fill → GTN → net revenue.
Market drivers with bounded future states, leading indicators, and scenario combinations.
Stress-test strategy choices across scenarios. Score alignment, risk, and net revenue lift.