Forecast Engine
Deterministic patient-flow model. HCP demand and demand→filled conversion are separate levers, access can be tuned per segment, and rebate↔access coupling lets you simulate a guided curve.
Patient flow & revenue by year
| Year | HCP demand | New pts | Continuing | Filled total | Access cut | Gross | Net | GTN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 471K | 199K | 0 | 199K | 57.8% | $3.21B | $1.98B | 38.5% |
| 2026 | 969K | 375K | 80K | 455K | 57.8% | $7.57B | $4.60B | 39.2% |
| 2027 | 1.55M | 574K | 192K | 766K | 57.8% | $13.10B | $7.86B | 40.0% |
| 2028 | 2.11M | 750K | 331K | 1.08M | 57.8% | $18.99B | $11.27B | 40.7% |
| 2029 | 2.51M | 860K | 474K | 1.33M | 57.8% | $24.10B | $14.12B | 41.4% |
| 2030 | 2.79M | 927K | 594K | 1.52M | 57.8% | $28.22B | $16.32B | 42.2% |
| 2031 | 2.96M | 960K | 684K | 1.64M | 57.8% | $31.35B | $17.89B | 42.9% |
| 2032 | 3.05M | 971K | 745K | 1.72M | 57.8% | $33.64B | $18.93B | 43.7% |
| 2033 | 3.06M | 960K | 782K | 1.74M | 57.8% | $35.10B | $19.47B | 44.5% |
| 2034 | 3.02M | 938K | 797K | 1.73M | 57.8% | $35.94B | $19.64B | 45.3% |
Net revenue trajectory
Rebate ↔ access coupling
Brief lever: "for a given rebate, here's the access you unlock." When on, rebate depth on commercial + employer carve-out drives the access tier via a guided curve, replacing channel baselines. Persisted on Base Case.
Curve: each +1pp of rebate above baseline unlocks ~1.4pp of access, capped at 95%. Calibration is illustrative — replace with payer-research-backed curve before going live.
Continuing-patient access protection (grandfathering)
Brief lever: "access can hit new vs continuing patients differently." 100% = refills are fully grandfathered against a coverage cut (today's default). 0% = continuing patients feel the same access shock as new starts. Persisted on Base Case.
Math: continuing patients are scaled by protection + (1 − protection) × min(1, accessMultiplier) each year. Only bites when scenario access < 1.0 (e.g. Downside).
Rebate sweep · break-even concession depth
With coupling forced ON, peak net revenue across rebate depths 20%–70% on Base Case. All other levers held at current settings. The blue dot marks the optimum; the dashed line is the current concession.
Read: where the curve flattens or turns down is the point where additional concession stops buying enough access to pay for itself. Use this to anchor pricing-committee conversations.
Sweep optimum is 20% rebate → $24.72B peak net on Base Case. Current concession is 42%. Generate a pricing-committee callout grounded in these numbers.
Sensitivity tornado · ±20%
10-yr cumulative net · ranked by swingWhich single assumption moves the answer most? Each bar shows how cumulative net revenue changes when one input is flexed ±20% off the Base Case baseline, with everything else held constant.
Goal-seek · reverse-solver
"What would have to be true?"Pick a target net revenue and a year. The model binary-searches for the lever value on Base Case that hits it.
Per-segment access posture
Payers treat segments differently. These modifiers stack on top of channel-level access (1.0 = neutral). Edits persist on the Base Case scenario and flow into every view.