Strategy Simulator

Pick a scenario, then see which strategy plays hold up. The forecast engine is unchanged — lever choices annotate access and risk, not the core math.

Base Case: Most-likely state across all drivers. PBM tightening, oral GLP-1 launches 2026, selective employer coverage.

Strategy levers

Net price posturerecommended

Contracting modelrecommended

Patient support investmentrecommended

Evidence generationrecommended

Channel focusrecommended

Supply allocationrecommended

Base Case · peak net revenue

$28.27B

43.9%

Base $19.64B · Y2034

Strategy fit

100%

6/6 levers match recommended play

Execution risk

40%

Risk-neutral or risk-reducing

Directional strategy matrix

How each lever option moves the model under Base Case. ↑ improves, ↓ erodes, ↔ neutral.

Lever / option	Access	GTN	Risk	Selected
Net price posture Hold WAC, deepen rebatesrec				●
Net price posture WAC cut 10%				—
Net price posture Hold WAC, flat rebate				—
Contracting model Traditional rebate				—
Contracting model Outcomes-based (HbA1c/MACE)rec				●
Contracting model Indication-based pricing				—
Patient support investment Maintain current				—
Patient support investment Expand bridge programrec				●
Patient support investment Income-tested copay assistance				—
Evidence generation Maintain current				—
Evidence generation RWE for employer ROIrec				●
Evidence generation Pragmatic trial in CV subgroup				—
Channel focus Broad commercialrec				●
Channel focus Cardiology lift				—
Channel focus Employer direct				—
Supply allocation Pro-rata across channelsrec				●
Supply allocation Prioritize commercial				—
Supply allocation Prioritize Medicare-eligible				—

Portability across scenarios

Same strategy mix, re-scored against every scenario. A robust play stays positive across all three.

Base Case

43.9%risk -17

Access Compression

67.4%risk -17

CV Label Expansion

34.3%risk -17

AI narrative · Base Case

Under Base Case, the current mix produces 43.9% lift vs the scenario base and matches 6 of 6 recommended plays.

Click Generate for a grounded AI narrative. The model receives only the structured numbers and selections shown on this page.