2025–2034 horizon (10y)
Module 4
Strategy Simulator
Pick a scenario, then see which strategy plays hold up. The forecast engine is unchanged — lever choices annotate access and risk, not the core math.
Access Compression: PBM tightening accelerates, employer carve-outs spread, oral GLP-1 takes share faster than expected.
Strategy levers
Net price posturerecommended
Contracting modelrecommended
Patient support investment
Evidence generation
Channel focus
Supply allocation
Access Compression · peak net revenue
$12.64B
67.4%Base $7.55B · Y2034
Strategy fit
100%
2/6 levers match recommended play
Execution risk
55%
Risk-neutral or risk-reducing
Directional strategy matrix
How each lever option moves the model under Access Compression. ↑ improves, ↓ erodes, ↔ neutral.
| Lever / option | Access | GTN | Risk | Selected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net price posture Hold WAC, deepen rebatesrec | ● | |||
Net price posture WAC cut 10% | — | |||
Net price posture Hold WAC, flat rebate | — | |||
Contracting model Traditional rebate | — | |||
Contracting model Outcomes-based (HbA1c/MACE)rec | ● | |||
Contracting model Indication-based pricing | — | |||
Patient support investment Maintain current | — | |||
Patient support investment Expand bridge program | ● | |||
Patient support investment Income-tested copay assistancerec | — | |||
Evidence generation Maintain current | — | |||
Evidence generation RWE for employer ROI | ● | |||
Evidence generation Pragmatic trial in CV subgrouprec | — | |||
Channel focus Broad commercial | ● | |||
Channel focus Cardiology lift | — | |||
Channel focus Employer directrec | — | |||
Supply allocation Pro-rata across channels | ● | |||
Supply allocation Prioritize commercialrec | — | |||
Supply allocation Prioritize Medicare-eligible | — |
Portability across scenarios
Same strategy mix, re-scored against every scenario. A robust play stays positive across all three.
Base Case
43.9%risk -17
Access Compression
67.4%risk -17
CV Label Expansion
34.3%risk -17
AI narrative · Access Compression
Under Access Compression, the current mix produces 67.4% lift vs the scenario base and matches 2 of 6 recommended plays.
Click Generate for a grounded AI narrative. The model receives only the structured numbers and selections shown on this page.