2025–2034 horizon (10y)
Module 3
Drivers & Scenarios
Market drivers with bounded future states and leading indicators. Scenarios are combinations of driver states — used by the forecast engine and strategy simulator.
Each driver is plotted by its likelihood of deviating from base × the magnitude of forecast / strategy impact if it does. Use the quadrants to prioritize where to invest evidence and contingency planning.
Disruption magnitude →
Likelihood of change →
Wildcard
Critical
Watch
Monitor
Medicare obesity coverage
Oral GLP-1 entry
Employer coverage expansion
PBM utilization management
CV outcomes label uptake
| Driver | Quadrant | Likelihood | Disruption | Primary signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Oral GLP-1 entry Competitive | Critical — plan against | 78% | 72% | Ph3 readouts · FDA submission timing |
PBM utilization management Payer | Critical — plan against | 82% | 66% | PBM formulary publications · PA criteria changes |
Medicare obesity coverage Policy | Critical — plan against | 55% | 85% | CMS RFI outcomes · TROA congressional movement |
Employer coverage expansion Channel | Monitor — track signals | 62% | 48% | Mercer/Willis Towers surveys · Carve-out RFP volume |
CV outcomes label uptake Evidence | Monitor — track signals | 70% | 38% | ACC/AHA guideline updates · Cardiology Rx trends |