2025–2034 horizon (10y)
Module 3

Drivers & Scenarios

Market drivers with bounded future states and leading indicators. Scenarios are combinations of driver states — used by the forecast engine and strategy simulator.

Driver libraryDriver 2×2Scenarios

Edit access multiplier and competitive pressure inline. Changes are saved locally and flow through the forecast engine on every page.

ScenarioMedicare obesity coverageOral GLP-1 entryEmployer coverage expansionPBM utilization managementCV outcomes label uptakeAccess mult.Comp. pressure
Base Case
Most-likely state across all drivers. PBM tightening, oral GLP-1 launches 2026, selective employer coverage.
basebasebasebasebase
Access Compression
PBM tightening accelerates, employer carve-outs spread, oral GLP-1 takes share faster than expected.
conservativedisruptiveconservativedisruptivebase
CV Label Expansion
SELECT drives cardiology adoption, Medicare opens limited coverage, employers maintain coverage.
disruptivebasebasebasedisruptive